1. Raising the probability of being right is valuable no matter what your probability of being right already is.
2. Knowing when not to bet is as important as knowing what bets are probably worth making.
3. The best choices are the ones that have more pros than cons, not those that don’t have any cons at all.
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Predicting the future is imperfect. Instead, all decisions create probabilities of multiple future outcomes. The probability-weighted sum of these outcomes is the expected value of a decision.
When considering impact of a project, map out all possible outcomes and assign probabilities. Outcome variability typically includes the probability it takes longer than expected and the probability that it fails to solve the customer problem.
Once you lay out all the outcomes, do a probability-weighted sum of the value of the outcomes and you’ll have a better picture on the return you will get on the investment.
— Brandon Chu
Source:
Ray Dalio’s Book Principles – https://www.amazon.com/dp/B071CTK28D/ref=chrt_bk_rd_nf_4_ci_lp
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Product Management Mental Models for Everyone – https://blackboxofpm.com/product-management-mental-models-for-everyone-31e7828cb50b
Product Management Mental Models for Everyone
