This seems obvious, but how many times are we tricked by our reverse engineering and backward reasoning? Consistent effort and curiosity are required to understand the true cause and effect.
“The narrative fallacy addresses our limited ability to look at sequences of facts without weaving an explanation into them, or, equivalently, forcing a logical link, an arrow of relationship upon them. Explanations bind facts together. They make them all the more easily remembered; they help them make more sense. Where this propensity can go wrong is when it increases our impression of understanding.”—Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan
“These types of stories strike a deep chord: They give us deep, affecting reasons on which to hang our understanding of reality. They help us make sense of our own lives. And, most importantly, they frequently cause us to believe we can predict the future. The problem is, most of them are a sham.” – Shane Parrish, Farnam Street Blog
“Figure out what you know and what’s a guess, and become humble about your understanding of the past.“ – Shane Parrish
