“The study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system (numerical or otherwise) can be apportioned to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs.” Source: Gabriel Weinberg's Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful
“A process of analyzing possible future events by considering alternative possible outcomes.” (related: “Skate to where the puck is going.”; black swan theory — “a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often
“By taking the overall system as well as its parts into account systems thinking is designed to avoid potentially contributing to further development of unintended consequences.” (related: causal loop diagrams; stock and flow; Le Chatelier’s principle, hysteresis — “the time-based dependence of
“Changes that the act of observation will make on a phenomenon being observed.” (related: Schrödinger’s cat) Source: Gabriel Weinberg's Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful
“A wide range of cognitive biases that influence the responses of participants away from an accurate or truthful response.” Source: Gabriel Weinberg's Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful
“The selection of individuals, groups or data for analysis in such a way that proper randomization is not achieved, thereby ensuring that the sample obtained is not representative of the population intended to be analyzed.” (related: sampling bias) Source: Gabriel Weinberg's Mental
“A variable that is not in itself directly relevant, but that serves in place of an unobservable or immeasurable variable. In order for a variable to be a good proxy, it must have a close correlation, not necessarily linear, with the variable
“Systematic observation, measurement, and experiment, and the formulation, testing, and modification of hypotheses.” (related: reproducibility) - Gabriel Weinberg "The scientific method is a body of techniques for investigating phenomena, acquiring new knowledge, or correcting and integrating previous knowledge. To be termed scientific,
Just as you should keep a sharp eye out for “surely,” you should develop a sensitivity for rhetorical questions in any argument or polemic. Why? Because, like the use of “surely,” they represent an author’s eagerness to take a short cut. A
A deepity is a proposition that seems both important and true—and profound—but that achieves this effect by being ambiguous. On one reading it is manifestly false, but it would be earth-shaking if it were true; on the other reading it is true