Simpson’s Paradox
“A paradox in probability and statistics, in which a trend appears in different groups of data but disappears or reverses when these groups are combined.” Source: Gabriel Weinberg's Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful
Inflection Point
“A point on a curve at which the curve changes from being concave (concave downward) to convex (concave upward), or vice versa.” Source: Gabriel Weinberg's Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful
Bayes’ Theorem
“Describes the probability of an event, based on conditions that might be related to the event. For example, suppose one is interested in whether a person has cancer, and knows the person’s age. If cancer is related to age, then, using Bayes’
Confidence Interval
“Confidence intervals consist of a range of values (interval) that act as good estimates of the unknown population parameter; however, the interval computed from a particular sample does not necessarily include the true value of the parameter.” (related: error bar) Source: Gabriel
False Positives and False Negatives
“A false positive error, or in short false positive, commonly called a ‘false alarm’, is a result that indicates a given condition has been fulfilled, when it actually has not been fulfilled…A false negative error, or in short false negative, is where
Major vs Minor Factors
Major factors explains major portions of the results, while minor factors only explain minor portions. (related: first order vs second order effects — first order effects directly follow from a cause, while second order effects follow from first order effects.) Source: Gabriel