“To explain this model its’ best to give the example of countries. Countries that can be free, partly free or run by dictators (not free).
Start from a 2 state democracy model -> 5% of democracies switch to dictatorship and 20% the opposite. Trend towards freedom, but only 2/3 will be free unless the transition probabilities change. You can get a line
chart or a bar chart to compare model and actual, and they are very similar! And line chart patterns look very
similar!!” – Model Thinking Section 10: Markov Models
Source:
Scott Page Model Thinking MOOC Course
