In a normally distributed system, long deviations from the average will tend to return to that average with an increasing number of observations: the so-called Law of Large Numbers. We are often fooled by regression to the mean, as with a sick patient improving spontaneously around the same time they begin taking an herbal remedy, or a poorly performing sports team going on a winning streak. We must be careful not to confuse statistically likely events with causal ones. – Shane Parrish
“The phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement.” (related: Pendulum swing; variance; Gambler’s fallacy) – Gabriel Weinberg
Source:
Shane Parrish’s Farnam Street Mental Model Guide
https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/mental-models/
—
Gabriel Weinberg’s Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful
https://medium.com/@yegg/mental-models-i-find-repeatedly-useful-936f1cc405d
