A major problem with historiography – our interpretation of the past – is that history is famously written by the victors. We do not see what Nassim Taleb calls the “silent grave” – the lottery ticket holders who did not win. Thus, we over-attribute success to things done by the successful agent rather than to randomness or luck, and we often learn false lessons by exclusively studying victors without seeing all of the accompanying losers who acted in the same way but were not lucky enough to succeed. – Shane Parrish
“The logical error of concentrating on the people or things that ‘survived’ some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility.” – Gabriel Weinberg
“Survivorship bias or survival bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that made it past some selection process and overlooking those that did not, typically because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. It is a form of selection bias.” – Wikipedia (James Clear)
Source:
Shane Parrish’s Farnam Street Mental Model Guide
https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/mental-models/
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Gabriel Weinberg’s Mental Models I Find Repeatedly Useful
https://medium.com/@yegg/mental-models-i-find-repeatedly-useful-936f1cc405d
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James Clear Mental Models Overview
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
